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The True National Debt

“Five estimates of the national debt . . . (1) Treasury debt held by the public: $11.3 trillion, 73% of GDP . . . (2) Gross Federal debt: $16 trillion for 2012, 103% of GDP. (3) Federal loans and loan guarantees: $2.9 trillion in 2011, 19% of GDP. (4) Fannie and Freddie: $5.1 trillion, 33% of GDP. (5) Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: $7.3 trillion, 47% of GDP. . . . [totals] 202% of 2012 GDP.”

by Robert Samuelson

How big is the national debt?

You’d think this would be an easy question. Surely we know how much the government owes. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The true national debt could be triple the conventional estimate, anywhere from $11 trillion to $31 trillion by my reckoning. The differences mostly reflect explicit and implicit “off-budget” federal loan guarantees. In another economic downturn, these could result in large losses that would be brought “on budget” and worsen already huge deficits. That’s the danger. Continue reading


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